Streaking Tigers rally to nip Twins
Baseball Betting Lines
07/01/2008 -
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Curtis Granderson singled in the go-ahead
run in the top of the eighth inning and the Detroit Tigers rallied to down the
Minnesota Twins, 5-4, in the opener of a three-game set between a pair of
clubs playing exceptional baseball of late.
Granderson finished 3-for-4 and scored a run for the Tigers, who have reeled
off six straight wins. Placido Polanco and Gary Sheffield each had two hits,
with Polanco knocking in a run. Marcus Thames added a solo home run for
Detroit, which owns a record of 18-4 over its last 22 games.
Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera departed in the top of the third
inning due to a tight left hip flexor. He is listed as day-to-day.
Armando Galarraga gave up four runs -- three earned -- on nine hits over six
innings, but came away with a no-decision for Detroit. Casey Fossum (1-0) got
the win after tossing 1 1/3 scoreless frames. Joel Zumaya pitched the final 1
2/3 innings to notch his first save of the season.
Joe Mauer went 2-for-4 with a double, two RBI and a run scored for Minnesota,
which lost for just the second time in its last 13 contests. Denard Span had
two hits and knocked in run, while Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla collected
two hits apiece and scored a run.
"We should have won that game, it's pretty frustrating," Mauer said. "It's a
tough loss, but we know what those guys have over there. They got a tough
lineup that can score some runs. It's a tough loss. We had the lead and let it
go."
Glen Perkins was brilliant for the Twins, allowing two runs on seven hits and
striking out a career-high seven batters in 6 1/3 innings. Matt Guerrier (4-3)
was saddled with the loss as he gave up two runs in 1 1/3 innings of work.
Trailing 4-1, the Tigers scored four unanswered runs against the Twins
bullpen.
In the seventh, Granderson reached on a one-out single. Perkins was then
lifted in favor of Jesse Crain, who walked Edgar Renteria and yielded an RBI
single to Polanco. Dennys Reyes then took over the mound and Carlos Guillen
stroked a run-scoring single to left, narrowing the deficit to 4-3.
Detroit pulled ahead in the eighth. Sheffield stroked a leadoff single and a
triple by pinch-hitter Matt Joyce produced the tying run. Granderson then
lined a single to center to give the visitors the lead.
Zumaya worked around a pair of singles by Gomez and Span in the ninth to nail
down the third save of his career.
"It was a real good ball game," Detroit manager Jim Leyland said. "Both
starters pitched well. We didn't play real well to start. I thought we hung in
there big and Joyce came up with a pinch hit."
The Twins jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first, as Casilla
singled, took second on Polanco's throwing error and scored on a double by
Mauer.
Detroit quickly tied the score in the second on Thames 15th home run of
the season, a lead-off blast to right.
Mauer worked a walk to prolong the third and Justin Morneau followed with a
single that left fielder Clete Thomas misplayed, allowing Mauer to scamper
home.
The Twins tacked on another run in the fifth. Gomez hooked a one-out double
into the left-field corner, stole third and crossed the plate on Mauer's
infield single for a 3-1 lead.
Three straight two-out hits by Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris and Span in the
sixth plated a fourth run for Minnesota. Ryan Raburn nearly made an
outstanding diving catch on the ball hit by Span, but the umpires ruled that
the right fielder trapped the ball and Span was credited with an RBI double.
Game Notes
The Tigers have recorded at least 10 hits in six straight games...Minnesota
manager Ron Gardenhire was ejected in the bottom of the third inning by home
plate umpire James Hoye...Detroit committed three errors...Detroit starter
Jeremy Bonderman underwent successful surgery on Monday to correct thoracic
outlet compression syndrome, which is a pinching of the vein responsible for
returning blood from the arm to the heart and caused a clot...Detroit
infielder Ramon Santiago was scheduled to begin an injury rehab assignment
Monday at Triple-A Toledo. He has been sidelined since June 5 with a separated
left shoulder...The Tigers went 19-8 in the month of June. Minnesota was
17-11...Detroit's Nate Robertson (6-6) and Minnesota's Scott Baker (4-2) are
scheduled to start on Tuesday.
<< Reynolds keys Arizona's win over Milwaukee
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Reynolds went 3-for-3, including two
doubles, a solo home run and finished with three runs driven in, as the
Arizona Diamondbacks beat the Milwaukee Brewers, 6-3, in the opener of a four-
game se
<< Padres erupt for seven runs in ninth to beat Rockies
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edgar Gonzalez belted two solo home runs, the
second as part of a seven-run ninth to break open a tie game, as the San Diego
Padres outslugged the Colorado Rockies, 15-8, in the opener of a three-game
set bet
<< Diamondbacks' Byrnes leaves game
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Eric Byrnes
left Monday's 6-3 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers with a strained
left hamstring. The ailment comes a week after Byrnes was recalled from
the dis
<< Warriors' Davis opts out of deal
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Golden State Warriors point guard Baron Davis
has reportedly opted out of his contract with the team, leaving $17.8 million
on the table and choosing to become an unrestricted free agent.
The Oakland Tribun
<< Willingham blasts Fish past Nats
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Willingham's lead-off home run in the
bottom of the 10th inning lifted the Florida Marlins to a 6-5 win over the
Washington Nationals in the first of a three-game series at Dolphin Stadium.
Washin
Smith goes the distance as A's top Angels >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Greg Smith threw his second complete game of
the year as the Oakland Athletics opened a three-game set against the LA
Angels of Anaheim with a 6-1 win at Angel Stadium.
Smith (5-6) gave up just one ru
Jays' Halladay silences Seattle bats in 10th career shutout >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Halladay threw a four-hitter for his 10th
career shutout as the Toronto Blue Jays stymied the Seattle Mariners, 2-0, in
the opener of a three-game series.
Halladay (9-6) gave up only four singles, didn't
Seattle P Hernandez sent to DL >>
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seattle pitcher Felix Hernandez was sent to the
15-day disabled list following Monday's 2-0 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays.
Hernandez was helped off the field with a sprained left ankle in the fifth
inning
Garza outduels Wakefield as Rays top BoSox >>
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Garza twirled seven strong innings
and Dioner Navarro drove in two runs, as the Tampa Bay Rays defeated the
Boston Red Sox, 3-1, at Tropicana Field.
Garza (7-4) allowed one unearned run and
Rockies' Taveras leaves game >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colorado Rockies outfielder Willy Taveras
left Tuesday's 4-0 victory over the San Diego Padres in the sixth inning with
soreness in his left quadriceps.
The 26-year-old Taveras was 1-for-3 with an RBI
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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