Bulls take Rose with top pick
Basketball Betting Lines
06/27/2008 -
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls fulfilled Derrick Rose's
childhood dream as the point guard became the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft
and will play for his hometown team.
The Chicago native helped lead the Memphis Tigers to the championship game of
the 2008 NCAA Tournament during his freshman season, losing to Kansas in
overtime, yet Rose was still named to the All-Final Four Team. He led Memphis
with his 189 assists and was second on the squad with 14.9 points per game.
Rose was part of draft history as five of the top seven picks were college
freshmen. He was followed by Kansas State forward Michael Beasley taken by
Miami at No. 2, and it became a freshman trio when the Minnesota Timberwolves
nabbed Southern California shooting guard O.J. Mayo third. That marked the
first time in the draft's history that the top three picks were freshmen.
The Bulls, who finished 33-49 last season, had the top pick in the draft for
the first time since 1999 when they selected Elton Brand.
"It feels great to go in and compete," Rose said. "I'm just blessed to be in
that position right now, because a lot of people aren't, and just knowing that
we are a few pieces away from really contending as a team, it just makes me
happy."
Rose is just the third guard to be selected No. 1 overall in the last 30
drafts, joining Magic Johnson (1979) and Allen Iverson (1996).
Beasley was a candidate for nearly every national player of the year
honor available, becoming a finalist for the Naismith, Oscar Robertson and
Wooden Awards before declaring for the draft. He became just the third
freshman in NCAA history to lead the nation in rebounding with his 12.4
rpg, broke the NCAA freshman record for double-doubles in a season with 28,
logging four in the first half of games as he finished with a scoring average
of 26.2 ppg.
Now, Beasley will try to help the Heat bounce back from a league-worst 15-67
mark last season.
"I hope we're going to bring a lot of smiles to Miami," Beasley said. 'We're
going to bring a better record to Miami and hopefully a championship."
The most prized recruit in USC basketball history, Mayo decided to leave
school after only one season when he averaged 20.7 points and 4.5
rebounds. He has the ability to play both shooting and point guard positions.
Mayo was heavily looked at by the Heat, but in the end he wasn't upset about
slipping down a spot.
"You really can't get caught up into this too much," Mayo said. "There's going
to be a lot of speculation and a lot of things floating around in the air.
Obviously Mike and Derrick are two fantastic players and they did very well
this year."
A pair of UCLA players were taken next as point guard Russell Westbrook was
picked fourth overall by the Seattle SuperSonics, while freshman forward Kevin
Love was grabbed fifth by the Memphis Grizzlies. It was the sixth time in the
history of the draft that teammates were taken back-to-back.
Westbrook played a large part in pushing the Bruins to the top of the Pac-10
for the third straight year and into the Final Four this past season. He had
12.7 points per game and also topped UCLA in assists, and also played
more minutes (1,318) this past season than anyone since the school began
tracking such information in 1979.
The 6-foot-10 Love played just one season at UCLA, but dominated the inside
with 17.5 points and 10.6 rebounds. Love's father, Stan, was selected ninth
overall by the Baltimore Bullets in the 1971 NBA Draft.
Italian forward Danilo Gallinari was taken by the New York Knicks at sixth to
a chorus of boos. That was followed by the Los Angeles Clippers selecting
Indiana freshman guard Eric Gordon.
Gallinari played with Armani Jeans Milano in the Italian A-1 League for the
past two seasons and averaged 17.5 ppg this past season. His father was a
professional basketball player in Italy for several teams and has a connection
with new Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni, as the two played together in Italy.
The younger Gallinari tried to ignore the reaction by the fans.
"It's a part of the game, all of the players has got to hear this," Gallinari
said. "Not every time you can hear good things. So it's normal here."
Milwaukee took West Virginia forward Joe Alexander at No. 8. The pick was part
of a monumental day for the Bucks, who earlier shipped forwards Yi Jianlian
and Bobby Simmons to the New Jersey Nets in exchange for forward Richard
Jefferson. Yi was the sixth overall pick in last year's draft.
Alexander, who led the Mountaineers in both scoring and rebounding with
averages of 16.9 points and 6.4, respectively, became the first West Virginia
player selected in the opening round since Ron Williams was taken by the San
Francisco Warriors at No. 9 in 1968.
Charlotte, with new head coach Larry Brown, took Texas guard D.J. Augustin
with the ninth pick, while Stanford center Brook Lopez was taken at No. 10 by
the Nets. Twin brother Robin Lopez, also a center from Stanford, was taken at
15th by Phoenix.
Indiana took Arizona guard Jerryd Bayless 11th, followed by Sacramento getting
Rider forward Jason Thompson. Portland took guard Brandon Rush of national
champion Kansas next, while 6-foot-10 forward Anthony Randolph of LSU was
taken by Golden State at No. 14.
Rush though is likely headed to Indiana to play with his brother, Kareem.
Reports indicate the Blazers will deal Brandon Rush, guard Jarrett Jack and
forward Josh McRoberts to the Pacers for Bayless and forward Ike Diogu.
Thompson's pick tied a record for the longest a senior waited to be chosen in
the draft. Melvin Ely was taken 12th overall in 2002 by the Los Angeles Clippers.
Florida center Marreese Speights was taken 16th by Philadelphia, while
Georgetown center Roy Hibbert was selected next by Toronto. However, Hibbert
is likely going to the Pacers due to a proposed trade involving six-time All-
Star forward Jermaine O'Neal heading to the Raptors.
Nevada forward JaVale McGee went 18th to Washington, while the Cleveland Cavaliers took North Carolina State freshman forward J.J. Hickson at No. 19.
Charlotte also had the 20th pick in a trade from Denver and took Alexis
Ajinca, a 7-foot-1 power forward from France.
Forward Ryan Anderson of California was taken at the 21st spot by the Nets,
while Orlando took Western Kentucky forward Courtney Lee next, followed by
Ohio State center Kosta Koufos going to Utah, Conga forward Serge Ibaka
heading to Seattle, and French guard Nicolas Batum going to Houston.
Koufos became the ninth freshman drafted, breaking the old record of
eight from last year. Conversely, only five seniors were taken in the first
round.
The final five picks in the first round were San Antonio selecting IUPUI guard
George Hill, New Orleans taking Kansas forward Darrell Arthur, Memphis going
with Syracuse forward Donte' Greene, Detroit picking Indiana University
forward D.J. White, and New Mexico guard J.R. Giddens heading to the defending
NBA champion Boston Celtics.
Arthur was then traded to Portland for cash considerations.
A total of 12 freshmen were taken in the two rounds of the draft, including
seven in the lottery portion (first 14 picks).
<< Houston Texas
Signed quarterback Alex Brink.
<< Boston acquires Walker from Washington
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Washington traded the draft rights of Kansas
State forward Bill Walker, the 47th overall pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, to
defending-champion Boston for cash considerations.
Walker is best known as Michae
<< Heat acquire Chalmers from Minnesota in draft night trade
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat acquired the draft rights to
Kansas guard Mario Chalmers, the 2008 NBA Draft's 34th overall pick, from
Minnesota in exchange for a pair of future second-round selections and cash
conside
<< Arthur waits and waits...then traded to Portland
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darrell Arthur's stock slipped in the first
round of the NBA draft, and after he was finally taken 27th by New Orleans, he
was shipped to the Portland Trail Blazers for cash considerations.
A forward of t
<< Lee tallies 11 Ks as Indians top Giants
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cliff Lee didn't let a rain delay nearing two
hours stop his season-long momentum, as the southpaw struck out a career-best
11 Giants over eight frames in Cleveland's 4-1 victory over San Francisco.
Rain de
Padres sign Tomko >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres signed pitcher
Brett Tomko to a Major League contract Friday, one week after his release from
the Kansas City Royals.
The journeyman right-hander had been designated for assign
Buffalo RB Lynch loses license in hit-and-run case >>
Buffalo, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buffalo running back Marshawn Lynch's guilty
plea to his involvement in a May 31 hit-and-run accident was accepted on
Friday. Lynch lost his driver's license and was fined the maximum of $100.
In the
Kanaan quickest at RIR >>
Richmond, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Kanaan won the pole for Saturday night's
SunTrust Indy Challenge at the Richmond International Raceway. The No.11
Andretti Green Racing driver circled the 0.750-mile short track four times in
one minute, 04.
Points, McCarthy share lead at Gretzky's Nationwide event >>
Clarksburg, Ontario (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.A. Points fired a 10-under 62, while
Kyle McCarthy carded a seven-under 65 to join Points in the lead after two
rounds of the Wayne Gretzky Classic.
The duo completed 36 holes at 12-under-par 131
Top-seed Ivanovic falls at Wimbledon >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jie Zheng of China stunned top-seeded
Serbian Ana Ivanovic, while Americans Serena Williams and Bethanie Mattek
advanced in third-round action at Wimbledon on Friday.
Zheng, ranked No. 133 in th
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
MySportsbook.com: NFL draft - The NFC South
In part two of MySportsbook.com’s draft preview, we’ll take a look at a division that was extremely disappointing last season: the NFC South. Many “experts” predicted the Panthers to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, of course they could not even make the playoffs in an extremely weak NFC. The Saints definitely made up for the disappointing seasons of their NFC South brethren by exploding out of no where en route to the NFC Championship game. For the avid NFL gambler, it is imperative to pay attention to the NFL draft. Although free agency gets a ton of publicity, the successful franchises build their teams around the draft.
1. New Orleans Saints
Who would have thought this time last year that the Saints would be the favorites to win the NFC South for the 2007 campaign? New Orleans is loaded with firepower on the offensive side of the ball but with the exodus of Joe Horn they will most likely look to draft a WR on Day 1. Despite having the NFL’s 3rd ranked pass defense last season, the Saints will most likely upgrade their CB’s with one of their first two picks. Other possibilities for the Saints will be TE and DT. Because of where they will be selecting (27th), the Saints could go the “best available player” route which could net a LB.
Key additions: Eric Johnson TE, Troy Evans LB, David Patten WR
Key loses: Joe Horn WR,
Team needs: CB, WR, TE, LB, DT
Possible draftees: Aaron Ross CB Texas, Darrelle Revis CB Pitt, Ted Ginn Jr. WR OSU, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Chris Houston CB Arkansas, Greg Olsen TE Miami
2. Carolina Panthers
Carolina was one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL last season. With the signing of David Carr, expect the very first quarterback controversy to come out of Carolina if Jake Delhomme doesn’t rebound quickly from an average 2007 season. With veteran safety Mike Minter getting up there in age, they will look to draft a safety on Day 1 but probably not in the first round. LB is another need with the loss of Chris Draft to go along with Dan Morgan’s concussion problems. If TE Greg Olsen is still on the board, he might be too good to pass up despite their needs on the defensive side of the ball.
Key additions: David Carr QB
Key loses: Chris Draft LB
Team needs: LB, TE, S, OT
Possible draftees: Greg Olsen TE Miami, Patrick Willis LB Ole Miss, Paul Posluszny LB PSU, Levi Brown OT PSU
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were another NFC South team to have a disappointing 2007 season. The Falcons have been plenty busy during the off season with plenty of players coming and going including a new head coach. The Falcons were able to improve their draft position with the trade of coveted backup QB Matt Schaub. High on the list of Day 1 needs will be a defensive end to replace Patrick Kerney and a hard hitting safety since Lawyer Milloy is nearing the end of his career. With an additional 2nd round pick, the Falcons could attempt to trade up to acquire local product WR Calvin Johnson.
Key additions: Joey Harrington QB, Toniu Fonoti OG, Joe Horn WR
Key loses: Justin Griffen RB, Patrick Kerney DE, Matt Lehr OG, Ashley Lelie WR, Matt Schaub QB
Team needs: DE, S, OT, WR, DT
Possible draftees: LaRon Landry S LSU, Amobi Okoye DT Louisville, Levi Brown OT PSU, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas, Alan Branch DT Michigan
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age really caught up to the Bucs last season. The Bucs still have plenty of household names on defense in Ronde Barber, Simeon Rice and Derrick Brooks but the one thing those three have in common is unfortunately age. It is imperative for the Bucs to get much younger, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having bigger needs on the defensive side of the ball, WR Calvin Johnson is the most likely pick if he is still available when the Bucs pick at the four spot. This would suit Bucs’ faithful just fine as Johnson is widely considered the top talent in the draft and it is a position of need for the Bucs.
Key additions: Jeff Garcia QB, Kevin Carter DE, Torrie Cox CB, Cato June LB
Key loses: Dewayne White DE, Sean Mahan OG
Team needs: WR, LB, DE, CB (Youth on defense!)
Possible draftees: Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech, Gains Adams DE Clemson, Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas
It is never too early to start betting on the NFL. Log on to MySportsbook.com to checkout all of the NFL futures for the upcoming season. On the clock: the NFC North
Odds to win the NFC South:
New Orleans Saints 8-5
Carolina Panthers 2-1
Atlanta Falcons 12-5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-2
Odds to win the NFC:
New Orleans Saints 13-2
Carolina Panthers 7-1
Atlanta Falcons 20-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-1
Odds to win the Super Bowl:
New Orleans Saints 18-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1
Atlanta Falcons 50-1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75-1
To visit this sportsbook get to MySportsbook.com for all your online sportsbook needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
|
